Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
